S100 Review – New G Coming?

Combining and commenting on two newsy items …

An extensive and largely positive review of the new PowerShot S100 has been posted by DPreview. It appears that Canon’s upgrade of the popular S95 has been successful.  In particular, Canon’s CMOS version of the 1/1.7 inch CCD used in both the G12 and S95 enabled new features to be added to its compact enthusiast camera.

About the same time, CanonRumors began speculating on a successor to the G12.  Interestingly, follow-up discussions in the CanonRumors Forum  vary widely with respect to a wish list or even the need for such a camera.  The points made by Canon and interpretation by CanonRumors seem to point to  a new “G” (variously being called G13, G14, Gx)  being introduced in 2012. 

My own opinion about the “G14” (my previous guess about the product name)  has changed and is changing again.  I’d made my own wish list and then decided that the days of the G series as we know it were over.  When the S100 came along, I began to think that the next G would really be a souped-up S100 and use the same sensor.  Later, I again decided that the days of the G were over but that Canon would introduce a compact  “mirrorless” camera with interchangeable lenses.  Now I’m back to believing that the “Gx” will be a non-interchangeable lens camera with CMOS sensor but somewhat larger than the S100 sensor.  Surely the “Gx” will have virtually all the features of the S100.  I hope it will include the features from my own wish list.

G11 Announced

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Canon’s G11 was announced today. The announcement was expected but I was very surprised by the feature set of the G11. I’d made my own G11 prediction a few months ago but didn’t exactly hit the mark. Well, taking a more positive attitude, I did get a few things right: the name G11; same form, appearance, controls but a little larger; same focal lengths and apertures; fewer pixels but higher ISO; highlight recovery option. Perhaps not so terrible after all.

On the down side, I completely missed the mark with my prediction of a 12MP CMOS sensor manufactured by Canon that would be slightly larger than the G10 sensor. The G11 uses a 10MP CCD sensor and, at this point, the manufacturer is not known. The G11 sensor is the same size as the G10 sensor.

Even more surprising to me is that the G11 does not include HD video. Actually, I’m shocked at this omission. It never even occurred to me that HD video would not be in the G11 feature set. The omission of HD video in the G11 is probably a serious marketing error by Canon. (Having said this, I must admit to using movie mode very infrequently on my G3 and G9 but was looking forward to trying HD video with my next camera. Also, I’m well aware that the need for HD video in a compact camera is a much debated topic among photographers.)

The G11 even has the articulated display screen in spite of my prediction that it would not. However, I’m happy to have been wrong!

Other features that I mis-predicted include: launch date (I thought September); price (a good thing!); new lens (apparently is the same as the G10); pixel binning at ISO 12800 (instead of 6400) – sounds interesting; new conversion adapter (will use the G10 adapter); RAW files from AUTO mode.

The G11 may also have some minor tweaks to shutter lag and flash performance. There’s a new mode, “Quick Shot”, that sounds interesting but is not described in detail.

Canon’s launch information leads me to believe that ISO 400 and possibly 800 might be routinely usable with respect to noise. Of course, noise and noise reduction are greatly debated topics and others may very well disagree. With my G9, I was beginning to feel OK about ISO 400 after suitable processing. The G11 would appear to have the potential to go to even higher ISO speeds.

As always, DPReview has additional information and summaries. I’m looking forward – and impatiently so -- to their review of the G11.
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The Perfect 10?

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Canon will almost certainly announce a new Powershot G camera in the next month or two. Since the G9 is not a perfect camera, wishes and speculations about its successor have been raging almost since the G9 was released. Especially recently, on DPreview , it’s a slow day if a new “When is the G10 coming out?” thread is not started. Those threads quickly become a variation of wishes and specifications followed by technical debates. The wish list typically includes wider angle, longer telephoto, add an articulated LCD – no, make the camera smaller, faster lens, etc., etc. The wishing and debating always includes a discussion of noise at high ISO. It’s enough to make you feel sorry for the Canon marketing department; no wonder Canon makes so many near-similar digicams!

There is even a website specializing in rumors about Canon that includes a set of “specifications” for the next Powershot G.

Against my better judgment, I can't resist making my own prediction about the upcoming addition to the Powershot G series. Fair Warning: As Yogi said, “I’m not so good at predicting – especially the future” and I have absolutely no proprietary information from Canon or anyone else. My prediction will almost certainly be incomplete and perhaps even entirely wrong. I just feel like making a prediction, seeing where it falls and later discussing how and why it was wrong.

Although some call the next Powershot G the “G11”, I’ll refer to the next Powershot G as the “G10” and even predict that G10 is the name. The “G4” and “G8” product names were skipped because, supposedly, those would have been unlucky names in some parts of the world.

I predict that the G10 will essentially be a G9 with few more megapixels, specifically 14MP. Apparently, Canon uses Sony CCD sensors in the Powershot series and this is the sensor that is available. Will this 14MP sensor have more noise than the current 12MP sensor? At this point, only the Canon and Sony engineers know for certain but, based on simplistic physics, more noise seems likely. On the other hand, one can always hope that design and manufacturing improvements will actually reduce noise.

What about the CMOS sensors that Canon was to produce for their digicams? I can’t find any new information about this manufacturing plant and it seems unlikely that Canon would not publicize it. Therefore, I assume that these sensors are not ready for the 2008/9 Powershot series of cameras.

In fact, I suspect that the G10 is the last of the G series of Powershot cameras. For that reason, I don’t expect any hardware changes: no new lens, little change in body style, etc. I do expect some software tweaks, including HD video. The G10 will be the camera for those photographers who wanted a G9 but didn’t get it and would still like one. Nothing wrong that that – the G10 will probably be a nice camera.

I’d sure love to be wrong about the G10, especially the CMOS sensor. But I do expect Canon to drop the “G” series after the G10. Although I expect a completely new product name, for now, I’ll call the G10 replacement the “G11”.

The G11 will use a CMOS sensor that might be a little larger than the current CCD sensor. The G11 will be Canon’s opportunity to reduce pixel density (they can brag about the ‘new’ CMOS technology in the marketing campaign) and really improve the noise at high ISO. Perhaps we’ll see 8 or 10MP in the G11 but you can bet that the pixel count will jump again with the “G12”!

So that’s my prediction: The G10 will be more similar than different from the G9. There will be little reason for G9’ers to upgrade to the G10. Sure hope I’m wrong.
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