The Mirrorless G Series

This post is almost a joke but it’s time to make my annual prediction for the next PowerShot G camera even though the G1X was launched only a few months ago. This time last year, I predicted the “G14” – Wrong!

Canon has previously said that the G1X does not replace the G12. The G12 is still listed on the Canon website. The Canon statement leaves room for a “G14” to replace the G12; however, my G14 prediction is that there will be no successor to the G12 as such. The G1X will turn out to be the successor to the G12 after all – as most people believed anyway. Canon was simply hedging their bets by not taking the G12 off the market at the time of the G1X launch.

The G2X, as it almost certainly will be named, is still many months away – probably late summer next year. Like recent G series cameras, the G2X will continue as an evolutionary step from the G1X. The real news – and apparently coming soon – is the mirrorless PowerShot.

Of course, none of the G series Canon Powershots have a mirror but that is beside the point. The current craze is for “mirrorless” cameras and Canon will soon join that club.

“Mirrorless” is usually understood to mean not only a camera without the mirror of the single lens reflex (SLR) and its digital descendant but also to be a compact camera with interchangeable lenses. Sometimes this type of camera is abbreviated as “MILC” for mirrorless interchangeable lens camera. Some of these mirrorless cameras more or less resemble rangefinder cameras of old (which did not have a mirror either) while others take on the look and feel of a DSLR.

Everyone expects that Canon will launch a mirrorless camera soon and “soon” is July 24 according to Canon Rumors. What will this new camera be named? It certainly could continue as a PowerShot although some seem to think it will be an entirely new series. I think the Canon mirrorless is likely to be a PowerShot Pro2.

The PowerShot Pro1 was a revolutionary product launched in 2004 and never updated. It had a different shape and a relatively large (for the time) sensor for a compact camera. Although the Pro1 had – and still has -- its devotees, reviews were somewhat subdued. I recall giving it a serious consideration but deciding to pass on the Pro1.

I don’t really think that the new Canon mirrorless will be named the PowerShot Pro2. “Pro2” makes me think of second best. I think the new Canon mirrorless will be named the PowerShot Pro1X (with future versions being named “Mark II”, etc.).

The Pro1X may not look like the older Pro1 (I hope it looks like a “rangefinder”) but will borrow and evolve enough Pro1 features to be recognized as a legitimate descendant. Evolved features will include:

• High resolution EVF + articulated LCD
• Hybrid autofocus
• Intervalometer
• Pop up flash + hotshoe

The Pro1X will be a true PowerShot with many features borrowed from the G1X including:

• A tweaked G1X sensor
• DIGIC 5 processor
• Movie modes with added features
• SCN and filter modes
• Built-in neutral density filter
• Variable aspect ratio image files
• Video button (but protected from accidental activation)
• Image Stabilization

The Pro1X will include “new” features such as

• Interchangeable lenses
• Initially 3 lenses: wide and telephoto zoom, fixed 40mm pancake
• New lens mount, plus adapter for DSLR lenses
• Wifi
• Flash controls like 7D (oh please, please!)
• Larger battery
• 4 to 8 frames per second burst in RAW mode
• eliminate 1 second shutter speed limit in Av mode
• Touchscreen controls (in addition to G1X type physical controls)

Apparently we will know in a few weeks.

I predict that the Pro1X will be criticized for not being “pocketable”. Also, many will criticize the EVF and point out that the EVF makes the camera larger than necessary.

(Why do I do this? Just for grins! I have no affiliation with Canon and no real source of information to use as the basis of these guesses.)

GX: Wishin’ and Hopin’

In my G14 predictions, I emphasized prediction and not wishing. As a result of attempting to be realistic, my prediction is not particularly exciting but I’ll stand by it (even though rumors of the S100 indicate a new lens might be coming). Several readers have let me know that they hope I am wrong and, actually, I do too. I can’t imagine buying the predicted G14 but I could buy a “GX” if it were an innovative expansion and upgrade of the G12. Here’s my wish list.

Thinking in terms of photography, the four basic parameters need upgrading on the G12:

• 1) Sensitivity – increase ISO, dynamic range plus reduce noise
• 2) Shutter speed – remove 1 s max in Av, 15 s max otherwise
• 3) Aperture – one more stop at all focal lengths
• 4) Optics – wider and longer zoom

Of course, optics, aperture and physical size are linked so these wishes mean the GX would probably be physically larger than the G12. That’s OK with me as long as the GX remains smaller than, say, the old G3. One way to vary the optics would be interchangeable lenses. The GX could come with a small, inexpensive “kit” lens, say 35mme to 70mme at f4, and have three or four optional lenses available – including a small “pancake” design with fixed focal length. Ideally, a lens adapter would allow existing Canon DSLR lenses to be used on the GX. If the GX is to be adaptable to existing Canon DSLR lenses then image stabilization will be a part of the lens design and not the sensor. No doubt someone would reverse engineer the GX adapter so that lenses from other manufacturers could be used as well.

Why do we wish for a larger sensor? OK, I’m aware of all that stuff but my point is that we should ask for sensor features at high quality and not presume the physical size – let the Canon engineers worry about the sensor size. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if Canon came out with new technology that produced APS-C results from the current sensor physical size?

And then there’s video. As a believer in the convergence of video and still photography, I almost included video in my basics list. It is easy and obvious to wish for the upgrade from 720p HD to full 1080p HD video as part of the GX feature set but don’t forget about manual controls. Give me an optical zoom, please (but a quiet one) and a plug-in for an external microphone.

Thinking of features, I’d like to see the following on the GX:

• Dramatic improvements in focus and shutter lag
• a manual “street” mode (display off, instantaneous response)
• RAW + adjustable JPEG simultaneous shooting
• Flash control like Canon DSLRs including master controller
• Touch screen for menu-like settings (only)
• Larger and higher resolution screen (articulated)
• graduated neutral density filter (in addition to existing ND filter)
• something cutesy that I won’t be able to imagine.

Things I can give up … well, why give up anything?  Maybe the optical viewfinder. 

I’ll accept all this in August but am not expecting it.

Oh, and keep the $500 price tag!

Predicting the G11

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Last year about this time, I made predictions about the upcoming G10 – not a wish list but predictions. Why? “Because I wanted to” is the only reasonable answer. I thought I had a bit of insight from Canon’s notes to software developers and newspaper articles about CMOS but this information turned out to be misleading (mis-interpreted is probably a better word). Even so, my G10 prediction wasn’t all that bad. Time now for the G11 prediction.

First of all, whereas last year I thought that the G Series might go away – if not in spirit then as a product name -- now I think that the G Series remains for the G11 and perhaps beyond. In spite of early criticism about the high pixel count and noise at high ISO, the G10 is a very capable and popular camera – even among professionals. Since its introduction, I’ve linked to several articles and reviews to the G10 including Luminous Landscape, The Online Photographer and others. Surely Canon will take advantage of the good G10 name and its successor will be named the G11.

If the G11 is to be successful as Canon’s flagship compact non-DSLR camera then it must be competitive with the Four Thirds System being developed by Panasonic and Olympus. Panasonic even had the audacity to name one of their cameras the “G1” ! In fact, it is this very G1 and its successor, GH1, which threaten to replace the G10 as the compact camera of choice in the hands of serious photographers.

With all the above in mind, here are my predictions for the G11. Please note that I have absolutely no insider or proprietary information on which to base these predictions.

The G11 will resemble the G10 in form, general appearance, controls, etc. but be a little larger. Right - larger not smaller. The G11 will have to be a bit larger than the G10 because it will have a larger sensor. The sensor will be a 12 MP CMOS design that is manufactured by Canon. It will be somewhat larger than the current 15 MP CCD (said to be manufactured by Sony) of the G10 but not as large as the 4/3 system sensors.

The G11 will not have an articulated LCD display screen much to the chagrin of those who love one. (I sure liked this feature on my G3 and would welcome it on the G11.)

The G11 will have HD video much like the SX1-IS: 1080p at 30 fps. In addition to the larger sensor and high ISO, HD video will be a major selling point for the G11.

Speaking of ISO, the G11 will have ISO up to 3200 (which will really be a software push of 1600) and pixel binning for 6400. In practice, the usable ISO will be 800 but pixel peepers will complain that even 400 is too noisy.

The G11 lens will be similar to the G10 lens except that it will be a new design to account for the larger sensor: focal length of 28 – 140 mme; f2.8 to f4.5. Image stabilized, of course. A new, larger, adapter will be necessary for filters.

Shutter lag and acquiring focus will be only marginally faster than the G10.

Sadly, external flash in manual mode will be the same as the G9/10; that is, camera manual mode will still also mean external flash manual mode.

The G11 will have RAW file format available when in full Auto exposure mode. Another feature will be variable highlight recovery for in-camera JPEGs.

So the G11 will be yet another step in the evolutionary development of the Canon Powershot G Series. All in all, the G11 will be “better” than the G10 just as the G10 is “better” than the G9, etc., etc. The G11 will be announced in mid-September 2009 and available in late October. The G11 will be more expensive than the G10 but less expensive than the Panasonic G1.
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The Perfect 10?

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Canon will almost certainly announce a new Powershot G camera in the next month or two. Since the G9 is not a perfect camera, wishes and speculations about its successor have been raging almost since the G9 was released. Especially recently, on DPreview , it’s a slow day if a new “When is the G10 coming out?” thread is not started. Those threads quickly become a variation of wishes and specifications followed by technical debates. The wish list typically includes wider angle, longer telephoto, add an articulated LCD – no, make the camera smaller, faster lens, etc., etc. The wishing and debating always includes a discussion of noise at high ISO. It’s enough to make you feel sorry for the Canon marketing department; no wonder Canon makes so many near-similar digicams!

There is even a website specializing in rumors about Canon that includes a set of “specifications” for the next Powershot G.

Against my better judgment, I can't resist making my own prediction about the upcoming addition to the Powershot G series. Fair Warning: As Yogi said, “I’m not so good at predicting – especially the future” and I have absolutely no proprietary information from Canon or anyone else. My prediction will almost certainly be incomplete and perhaps even entirely wrong. I just feel like making a prediction, seeing where it falls and later discussing how and why it was wrong.

Although some call the next Powershot G the “G11”, I’ll refer to the next Powershot G as the “G10” and even predict that G10 is the name. The “G4” and “G8” product names were skipped because, supposedly, those would have been unlucky names in some parts of the world.

I predict that the G10 will essentially be a G9 with few more megapixels, specifically 14MP. Apparently, Canon uses Sony CCD sensors in the Powershot series and this is the sensor that is available. Will this 14MP sensor have more noise than the current 12MP sensor? At this point, only the Canon and Sony engineers know for certain but, based on simplistic physics, more noise seems likely. On the other hand, one can always hope that design and manufacturing improvements will actually reduce noise.

What about the CMOS sensors that Canon was to produce for their digicams? I can’t find any new information about this manufacturing plant and it seems unlikely that Canon would not publicize it. Therefore, I assume that these sensors are not ready for the 2008/9 Powershot series of cameras.

In fact, I suspect that the G10 is the last of the G series of Powershot cameras. For that reason, I don’t expect any hardware changes: no new lens, little change in body style, etc. I do expect some software tweaks, including HD video. The G10 will be the camera for those photographers who wanted a G9 but didn’t get it and would still like one. Nothing wrong that that – the G10 will probably be a nice camera.

I’d sure love to be wrong about the G10, especially the CMOS sensor. But I do expect Canon to drop the “G” series after the G10. Although I expect a completely new product name, for now, I’ll call the G10 replacement the “G11”.

The G11 will use a CMOS sensor that might be a little larger than the current CCD sensor. The G11 will be Canon’s opportunity to reduce pixel density (they can brag about the ‘new’ CMOS technology in the marketing campaign) and really improve the noise at high ISO. Perhaps we’ll see 8 or 10MP in the G11 but you can bet that the pixel count will jump again with the “G12”!

So that’s my prediction: The G10 will be more similar than different from the G9. There will be little reason for G9’ers to upgrade to the G10. Sure hope I’m wrong.
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