Saturday, June 6, 2009

Predicting the G11

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Last year about this time, I made predictions about the upcoming G10 – not a wish list but predictions. Why? “Because I wanted to” is the only reasonable answer. I thought I had a bit of insight from Canon’s notes to software developers and newspaper articles about CMOS but this information turned out to be misleading (mis-interpreted is probably a better word). Even so, my G10 prediction wasn’t all that bad. Time now for the G11 prediction.

First of all, whereas last year I thought that the G Series might go away – if not in spirit then as a product name -- now I think that the G Series remains for the G11 and perhaps beyond. In spite of early criticism about the high pixel count and noise at high ISO, the G10 is a very capable and popular camera – even among professionals. Since its introduction, I’ve linked to several articles and reviews to the G10 including Luminous Landscape, The Online Photographer and others. Surely Canon will take advantage of the good G10 name and its successor will be named the G11.

If the G11 is to be successful as Canon’s flagship compact non-DSLR camera then it must be competitive with the Four Thirds System being developed by Panasonic and Olympus. Panasonic even had the audacity to name one of their cameras the “G1” ! In fact, it is this very G1 and its successor, GH1, which threaten to replace the G10 as the compact camera of choice in the hands of serious photographers.

With all the above in mind, here are my predictions for the G11. Please note that I have absolutely no insider or proprietary information on which to base these predictions.

The G11 will resemble the G10 in form, general appearance, controls, etc. but be a little larger. Right - larger not smaller. The G11 will have to be a bit larger than the G10 because it will have a larger sensor. The sensor will be a 12 MP CMOS design that is manufactured by Canon. It will be somewhat larger than the current 15 MP CCD (said to be manufactured by Sony) of the G10 but not as large as the 4/3 system sensors.

The G11 will not have an articulated LCD display screen much to the chagrin of those who love one. (I sure liked this feature on my G3 and would welcome it on the G11.)

The G11 will have HD video much like the SX1-IS: 1080p at 30 fps. In addition to the larger sensor and high ISO, HD video will be a major selling point for the G11.

Speaking of ISO, the G11 will have ISO up to 3200 (which will really be a software push of 1600) and pixel binning for 6400. In practice, the usable ISO will be 800 but pixel peepers will complain that even 400 is too noisy.

The G11 lens will be similar to the G10 lens except that it will be a new design to account for the larger sensor: focal length of 28 – 140 mme; f2.8 to f4.5. Image stabilized, of course. A new, larger, adapter will be necessary for filters.

Shutter lag and acquiring focus will be only marginally faster than the G10.

Sadly, external flash in manual mode will be the same as the G9/10; that is, camera manual mode will still also mean external flash manual mode.

The G11 will have RAW file format available when in full Auto exposure mode. Another feature will be variable highlight recovery for in-camera JPEGs.

So the G11 will be yet another step in the evolutionary development of the Canon Powershot G Series. All in all, the G11 will be “better” than the G10 just as the G10 is “better” than the G9, etc., etc. The G11 will be announced in mid-September 2009 and available in late October. The G11 will be more expensive than the G10 but less expensive than the Panasonic G1.
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5 comments:

Bronislaus Janulis said...

Gordon,

Sounds accurate, and like you probably, I'm holding out for the G13. But 13 is my number.

In the one situation where I push my G9 to 800 ISO, I'm very pleased with the results. Theatre lighting needs a little noise, for the texture and sparkle. And the G9 is far faster than my ancient D100,doing raw, plus I can stick it in a pocket, large.

I'm hanging on to my G9, as I like the reach over wide.

Horia said...

I believe G11 will have a 24 or 26mm wide angle lens

jimkahnw said...

Maybe it should be a whole new camera. I'd like a manual 24-120 35mm equivalent zoom, f/2.8, APS-size sensor, lower shutter release lag and fast focus, and most important, 100% optical viewfinder. Go Canon, Go.

Dongwon said...

I agree for most of your points.
Especially the HD 1080p 30fps is the one I was also thinking for the MUST INCLUDED feaure of G11.

TinyE said...

Reasonable prediction but I really don't see how Panasonic's 4/3 "G" series threatens Canon's G Series other than in name. The price points are COMPLETELY different, which may not matter for professionals used to forking out thousands but does make a difference for the vast majority of everyone else. The new GH1 retails for about $1500. Canon G G Series have never gone much above half that. Totally different buyers (for the most part).